The chief economist at the Bank of England has predicted that the decline in fortunes of the UK economy could turn around by the end of 2009. In a speech at the Association of British Insurer's (ABI) conference on economics and research, Spencer Dale, who also sits on the Monetary Policy Committee, said he believed that as the year progressed, the pace at which output is contracting will ease, with some signs of recovery being visible by around the turn of this year. His view, he said, was based on the substantial stimulus that had already started to flow through the economy and which was significantly greater than that seen at comparable stages of the recessions witnessed in the 1970s, 80s or 90s.
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