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Recession almost at an end

Recession almost at an end

Category: Savings

Updated: 21/12/2009
First Published: 21/12/2009

This article was correct at the time of publication. It is now over 6 months old so the content may be out of date.

The UK economy will come out of recession by the end of 2009, but growth is unlikely to have returned to pre-recession levels by the end of 2011, according to new year predictions from the CBI.

Its latest economic forecast predicts that the recession will end when UK growth resumes in the fourth quarter of this year, helped by consumers bringing their spending forward to beat the VAT rise.

However, subsequent growth in the first two quarters of 2010 is expected to be weak at 0.3%, before strengthening as the global economic recovery gathers pace, businesses rebuild stocks and household spending recovers.

Growth in the range of 0.5% to 0.7% is expected to be maintained until the end of 2011.

"The outlook is brightening as the global economy finds its feet, although we will need to keep our nerve during early 2010, and there is no sign of a clear driver of strong economic growth," said John Cridland, CBI deputy director-general.

Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to continue rising over the coming months, peaking at just over 2.8 million in the third quarter of next year.

The planned VAT rise in January is predicted to push CPI inflation up sharply before easing back to fall below the Bank of England's 2% target throughout 2011.

To minimise the risk of inflationary pressures, it is thought base rate will start rising in spring 2010, and could reach 2% by the end of next year.

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